Due to a lack of free time (i.e. finals), there won’t be an article for this week’s “Monday Night Football” matchup between the Houston Texans and New England Patriots. I will, however, make a few notes that you can interpret in anyway you like:
-The Patriots have, by a large margin, the best offense in football. Against an average defense, the Pats are expected to score 29.5 points per game. For comparison, the next closest are the Packers, with an expected output of around 26.5 points per game. The worst offense in the NFL are the Cardinals (18.7 expected PPG).
-The 2009-10 Texans had the worst defense in football. That same defense moved into the top five in the NFL for 2010-11 and this season. DC Wade Phillips, who was hired just prior to the 2010-11 season, must be the explanation.
-The Patriots play about as good defense as the Saints – which is to say, not good. But you’ll never hear about that from the “analysts” because 1) the Pats produce a high volume of turnovers, which are largely due to luck, and 2) Tom Brady plays on the other side of the ball. If the Pats are getting two or three turnovers per game, and #12 is putting up 30 points per game, no one’s going to say a thing bad about their defense.
Bold Prediction: The 1990’s Dallas Cowboys-esque three-headed monster of Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, and Andre Johnson is going to score in the 30s against the Pats. No doubt Tom Brady will answer, but will it be enough? Houston Texans pull off the upset in Foxboro, 34-27.
DynamicPicks Computer Predictions:
Houston Texans @ New England Patriots (-5.5)
Projected win: New England, 59.5% – CORRECT
Projected ATS win: Houston +5.5, 52.2% – INCORRECT
It’s advisable to lay off HOU +5.5. There isn’t enough value to warrant any kind of play – unless, of course, you’re just looking to spice-up your MNF viewing.