NFL Week 12 – Sunday Games

Safe Games (“Locks”)

Oakland Raiders @ Cincinnati Bengals (-9.5)

Projected win: Cincinnati, 56.6% – CORRECT

Projected ATS win: Oakland +9.5, 65.1% – INCORRECT

OAK +9.5 (65.1%) is clearly one of the best plays of today’s games.

CIN 34-10

Denver Broncos (-10) @ Kansas City Chiefs

Projected win: Kansas City, 55.6% – INCORRECT

Projected ATS win: Kansas City +10, 75.1% – CORRECT

Disclaimer: the offseason acquisition of P. Manning skews the stats towards KC. However, 75.1% for KC +10 is too high of a percentage to not take. KC +10 is a safe play.

DEN 17-9

Seattle Seahawks (-3) @ Miami Dolphins

Projected win: Miami, 56.0% – CORRECT

Projected ATS win: Miami +3, 63.2% – CORRECT

MIA +3 is a very safe play, as the Seahawks are terrible when playing on the road.

MIA 24-21

Tennessee Titans (-3.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Projected win: Jacksonville, 53.9% – CORRECT

Projected ATS win: Jacksonville +3.5, 62.5% – CORRECT

If anything the Jags improved with the injury to B. Gabbert. JAX +3.5 is safely above 60%.

JAX 24-19

Playable Games

Atlanta Falcons (-1) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Projected win: Atlanta, 60.5% – CORRECT

Projected ATS win: Atlanta -1, 59.2% – draw

The Bucs are being overrated by the public because of the flashy runs of D. Martin and the explosive play of J. Freeman. Don’t take the bait: ATL -1 is a legitimate 59.2% favorite.

ATL 24-23

Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants (-2.5)

Projected win: New York Giants, 50.8% – CORRECT

Projected ATS win: Green Bay Packers +2.5, 55.5% – INCORRECT

55.5% isn’t anything special, but it sure makes GB +2.5 a playable game.

NYG 38-10

St. Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals (-1)

Projected win: Arizona, 55.8% – INCORRECT

Projected ATS win: Arizona -1, 54.3% – INCORRECT

If you have any bad feeling about ARI -1, avoid it; if not, then you have to take it for the long-term value.

STL 31-17

Unplayable Games

Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) @ Cleveland Browns

Projected win: Pittsburgh, 57.9% – INCORRECT

Projected ATS win: Pittsburgh -1, 56.5% – INCORRECT

The injury to B. Roethlisberger makes PIT -1 a wash.

CLE 20-14

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears (-6)

Projected win: Chicago, 63.5% – CORRECT

Projected ATS win: Minnesota +6, 53.7% – INCORRECT

Not enough of a buffer zone above 52.4% for MIN +6 (53.7%) to be playable.

CHI 28-10

Baltimore Ravens (-1) @ San Diego Chargers

Projected win: San Diego, 51.6% – INCORRECT

Projected ATS win: San Diego +1, 52.9% – INCORRECT

Very limited, if any, value.

Buffalo Bills @ Indianapolis Colts (-3)

Projected win: Indianapolis, 59.0% – CORRECT

Projected ATS win: Indianapolis -3, 52.2% – CORRECT

Negative value on IND -3.

IND 20-13

San Francisco 49ers (-1) @ New Orleans Saints

Projected win: San Francisco, 51.0% – CORRECT

Projected ATS win: New Orleans +1, 50.3% – INCORRECT

Negative value on NO +1.

SF 31-21

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