NFL Week 10 – Sunday Games

Safe Games (“Locks”)

San Diego Chargers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)

Projected win: San Diego, 58.1% – INCORRECT

Projected ATS win: San Diego +3, 62.4% – INCORRECT

Straightforward: Buccaneers are statistically terrible, while the Chargers rank high according to the stats.

New York Jets @ Seattle Seahawks (-6)

Projected win: Seattle, 50.9% – CORRECT

Projected ATS win: New York +6, 62.6% – INCORRECT

NYJ +6 might be just slightly below 62.6% because of injuries. But at this time of the year, what team isn’t a little banged up?

Denver Broncos (-4.5) @ Carolina Panthers

Projected win: Carolina, 52.9% – INCORRECT

Projected ATS win: Carolina +4.5, 62.0% – INCORRECT

The addition of Manning underweights the Broncos’ statistics. That being said, Manning has had half a season to readjust those stats, so they shouldn’t be too far from the correct numbers. Take CAR +4.5.

St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers (-13.5)

Projected win: San Francisco, 72.3% – draw

Projected ATS win: St. Louis +13.5, 61.2% – CORRECT

13.5 is just too many points to cover from a defensive-minded team.

Playable Games

Dallas Cowboys (-2) @ Philadelphia Eagles

Projected win: Philadelphia, 56.7% – INCORRECT

Projected ATS win: Philadelphia +2, 59.1% – INCORRECT

Struggles as of late have decreased the public’s interest in the Eagles. PHI +2 has a lot of value.

Unplayable Games

Oakland Raiders @ Baltimore Ravens (-9)

Projected win: Baltimore, 66.6% – CORRECT

Projected ATS win: Oakland +9, 53.7% – INCORRECT

OAK +9 might be slightly higher than listed, due to key Raven injuries. But I don’t think it’s enough to make OAK +9 a playable game.

Houston Texans @ Chicago Bears (-1)

Projected win: Chicago, 53.5% – INCORRECT

Projected ATS win: Chicago -1, 53.5% – INCORRECT

Limited value.

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (-12.5)

Projected win: New England, 77.7% – CORRECT

Projected ATS win: New England -12.5, 52.6% – INCORRECT

No value.

Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins (-6)

Projected win: Miami, 61.9% – INCORRECT

Projected ATS win: Tennessee +6, 52.1% – CORRECT

No value.

Detroit Lions (-1) @ Minnesota Vikings

Projected win: Detroit, 51.8% – INCORRECT

Projected ATS win: Detroit -1, 51.8% – INCORRECT

No value.

New York Giants (-3.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals

Projected win: New York, 57.0% – INCORRECT

Projected ATS win: Cincinnati +3.5, 51.3% – CORRECT

No value.

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