Safe Games (“Locks”)
Brooklyn Nets (-3) @ Orlando Magic
Projected win: Orlando, 85.5% – INCORRECT
Projected ATS win: Orlando +3, 89.1% – INCORRECT
No matter how you tweak the statistics, 89.1% for ORL +3 is a safe bet. I can’t see how anyone could pass on ORL +3; it might be the pick of the year.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Phoenix Suns (-3.5)
Projected win: Phoenix, 84.5% – CORRECT
Projected ATS win: Phoenix -3.5, 78.7% – INCORRECT
I’ve mentioned this before: the Cavaliers are statistically the worst team in the NBA. It’s no surprise that the consistently average Suns are heavy, heavy favorites to cover their -3.5 spread.
Charlotte Bobcats @ New Orleans Hornets (-6.5)
Projected win: New Orleans, 83.3% – CORRECT
Projected ATS win: New Orleans -6.5, 68.9% – CORRECT
Average Hornets + home-court advantage + awful Bobcats = recipe for big win, NO -6.5.
San Antonio Spurs (-5.5) @ Sacramento Kings
Projected win: San Antonio, 80.0% – CORRECT
Projected ATS win: San Antonio -5.5, 66.5% – CORRECT
Kings aren’t good enough to keep up with the Gregg Popovich machine – even at home.
Indiana Pacers @ Minnesota Timberwolves (-2)
Projected win: Indiana, 60.0% – INCORRECT
Projected ATS win: Indiana +2, 63.3% – draw
Even w/o Granger, the Pacers should have the advantage against the T-Wolves.
Dallas Mavericks @ New York Knicks (-6)
Projected win: New York, 54.2% – CORRECT
Projected ATS win: Dallas +6, 62.9% – INCORRECT
Tyson Chandler and Jason Kidd aren’t too big of favorites (54.2%) at home against their former team. Dallas +6 has solid value.
Houston Rockets @ Memphis Grizzlies (-7)
Projected win: Memphis, 61.3% – CORRECT
Projected ATS win: Houston +7, 59.3% – INCORRECT
The Rockets have a 38.7% chance of stopping the Grizzlies’ hot streak tonight. They also have 7 points on their side, giving them a 59.3% chance of covering the spread.
Utah Jazz @ Denver Nuggets
Projected win: Denver, 73.2% – CORRECT
Projected ATS win: Denver -5.5, 57.7% – CORRECT
Despite a slow start, the Nuggets are a statistically dominant team. They are fair favorites to cover their 5.5-point spread tonight.
Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Lakers (-7)
Projected win: Los Angeles, 79.7% – CORRECT
Projected ATS win: Los Angeles -7, 59.6% – CORRECT
Because of all the unknowns in L.A., I can’t recommend LAL -7 (59.6%) as a value play. Lay-off the Lakers for a while.
Detroit Pistons @ Oklahoma City Thunder (-11.5)
Projected win: Oklahoma City, 83.6% – CORRECT
Projected ATS win: Oklahoma City -11.5, 53.2% – INCORRECT
OKC should have no trouble handling the Pistons tonight. But the line was set fairly, leaving us with little value in OKC -11.5.
Miami Heat (-5) @ Atlanta Hawks
Projected win: Miami, 61.0% – CORRECT
Projected ATS win: Atlanta +5, 52.8% – INCORRECT
Limited value, if any, in ATL +5.
Milwaukee Bucks (-3.5) @ Washington Wizards
Projected win: Milwaukee, 59.3% – CORRECT
Projected ATS win: Washington +3.5, 51.1% – INCORRECT
Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics (-5)
Projected win: Boston, 64.6% – INCORRECT
Projected ATS win: Boston -5, 51.1% – INCORRECT