NBA – Wednesday, October 31

Safe Games (“Locks”)

Dallas Mavericks @ Utah Jazz

Projected win: Dallas, 57.7% – INCORRECT

Projected ATS win: Dallas +8, 78.2% – INCORRECT

I guess without Dirk everyone is rating the Mavs lowly. But after that performance last night against the Lakers, I’m not sure how people are still not jumping on the Mavs. Take DAL +8 as an easy value play.

Sacramento Kings @ Chicago Bulls

Projected win: Chicago, 91.3% – CORRECT

Projected ATS win: Chicago -6.5, 82.4% – INCORRECT

Now, because of the D-Rose injury, CHI -6.5 is nowhere near the outrageous 82.4%. However, Chicago is still a good all-around team; they have a good shot at covering their 6.5-point spread against a pretty awful Kings team.

Houston Rockets @ Detroit Pistons

Projected win: Houston, 59.3% – CORRECT

Projected ATS win: Houston +2.5, 64.2% – CORRECT

Houston is favored at 59.3% to win this game – and that’s before you give them 2.5 free points with the spread. HOU +2.5 is definitely a safe play.

Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns

Projected win: Phoenix, 67.1% – INCORRECT

Projected ATS win: Phoenix -2.5, 62.3% – INCORRECT

Safe value play on PHO -2.5 (62.3%).

Memphis Grizzlies @ LA Clippers

Projected win: Memphis, 50.4% – INCORRECT

Projected ATS win: Memphis +3.5, 59.0% – INCORRECT

Nothing too special here. It’s odd that Memphis is predicted to upset LAC on the road, but it’s hard to argue with the math.

Playable Games

-none-

Unplayable Games

Denver Nuggets @ Philadelphia 76ers

Projected win: Philadelphia, 56.3% – CORRECT

Projected ATS win: Philadelphia -1.5, 54.6% – CORRECT

I like Philly to cover their 1.5-point spread; but 54.6% is not a high enough percentage to warrant this a “playable” game.

San Antonio Spurs @ New Orleans Hornets

Projected win: San Antonio, 65.5% – CORRECT

Projected ATS win: New Orleans +6.5, 53.2% – CORRECT

Slight advantage for NO +6.5

Indiana Pacers @ Toronto Raptors

Projected win: Indiana, 60.3% – CORRECT

Projected ATS win: Indiana -2, 57.0% – draw

There are injuries to key players on Indiana (Granger, George), so there may be too many unknowns to play this game.

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