Safe Games (“Locks”)
Dallas Mavericks @ Utah Jazz
Projected win: Dallas, 57.7% – INCORRECT
Projected ATS win: Dallas +8, 78.2% – INCORRECT
I guess without Dirk everyone is rating the Mavs lowly. But after that performance last night against the Lakers, I’m not sure how people are still not jumping on the Mavs. Take DAL +8 as an easy value play.
Sacramento Kings @ Chicago Bulls
Projected win: Chicago, 91.3% – CORRECT
Projected ATS win: Chicago -6.5, 82.4% – INCORRECT
Now, because of the D-Rose injury, CHI -6.5 is nowhere near the outrageous 82.4%. However, Chicago is still a good all-around team; they have a good shot at covering their 6.5-point spread against a pretty awful Kings team.
Houston Rockets @ Detroit Pistons
Projected win: Houston, 59.3% – CORRECT
Projected ATS win: Houston +2.5, 64.2% – CORRECT
Houston is favored at 59.3% to win this game – and that’s before you give them 2.5 free points with the spread. HOU +2.5 is definitely a safe play.
Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns
Projected win: Phoenix, 67.1% – INCORRECT
Projected ATS win: Phoenix -2.5, 62.3% – INCORRECT
Safe value play on PHO -2.5 (62.3%).
Memphis Grizzlies @ LA Clippers
Projected win: Memphis, 50.4% – INCORRECT
Projected ATS win: Memphis +3.5, 59.0% – INCORRECT
Nothing too special here. It’s odd that Memphis is predicted to upset LAC on the road, but it’s hard to argue with the math.
Denver Nuggets @ Philadelphia 76ers
Projected win: Philadelphia, 56.3% – CORRECT
Projected ATS win: Philadelphia -1.5, 54.6% – CORRECT
I like Philly to cover their 1.5-point spread; but 54.6% is not a high enough percentage to warrant this a “playable” game.
San Antonio Spurs @ New Orleans Hornets
Projected win: San Antonio, 65.5% – CORRECT
Projected ATS win: New Orleans +6.5, 53.2% – CORRECT
Slight advantage for NO +6.5
Indiana Pacers @ Toronto Raptors
Projected win: Indiana, 60.3% – CORRECT
Projected ATS win: Indiana -2, 57.0% – draw
There are injuries to key players on Indiana (Granger, George), so there may be too many unknowns to play this game.