NFL Week 8 – Sunday Games and MNF

Safe Games (“Locks”)

Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions

Projected win: Detroit, 66.3% – CORRECT

Projected ATS win: Detroit -1.5, 64.6% – CORRECT

Look for the Lions to get a win at home against the home-dominant Seahawks. 64.6% is a phenomenal ATS percentage.

DET 28-24

New Orleans Saints @ Denver Broncos

Projected win: New Orleans, 57.6% – INCORRECT

Projected ATS win: New Orleans +6, 69.0% – INCORRECT

Because of the addition of Manning this year, the Denver Broncos are slightly underrated by the computer formula. Still, NO +6 is being picked by other sports sites as a playable game. I would estimate that NO+6 is roughly 60.0% – a full 9-percentage point drop.

DEN 34-14

Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears

Projected win: Chicago, 68.8% – CORRECT

Projected ATS win: Carolina +9, 57.9% – CORRECT

If you give the dynamic Cam Newton a free 9 points – watch out. CAR +9 (57.9%) has too much value to pass up.

CHI 23-22

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals

Projected win: San Francisco, 63.7%

Projected ATS win: Arizona +7, 57.5%

The defenses of both Arizona and San Fran are ridiculous, while both their offenses are mediocre at best. No way that San Fran gets more than 7 points separation on the road.

Playable Games

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Green Bay Packers

Projected win: Green Bay, 78.2% – CORRECT

Projected ATS win: Jacksonville Jaguars +15, 59.6% – CORRECT

I’m not too sure about JAX +15, but it’s hard to argue with the math. Missing MJD, JAX +15 could to be downgraded to an arbitrary 57.5%, which feels right considering the weak significance of a modern-day running back.

GB 24-15

New England vs. St. Louis Rams

Projected win: New England, 73.8% – CORRECT

Projected ATS win: New England -7, 57.2% – CORRECT

Note that the “vs.” instead of the “@” in the game title signifies a neutral site. In this case, it’s London, England. NE -7 (57.2%) is a really solid value play.

NE 45-7

Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs

Projected win: Kansas City, 56.3% – INCORRECT

Projected ATS win: Kansas City -1, 56.3% – INCORRECT

KC -1 has a 56.3% chance of covering. KC -1 is an easy call as a solid value bet.

OAK 26-16

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets

Projected win: New York, 61.4% – INCORRECT

Projected ATS win: New York -1.5, 59.5% – INCORRECT

NYJ -1.5 isn’t as high as the listed 59.5% because of injuries to key players. I would put it at ~55%, which is still a solid value play.

MIA 30-9

Washington Redskins @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Projected win: Pittsburgh, 68.6% – CORRECT

Projected ATS win: Pittsburgh -4.5, 57.5% – CORRECT

PIT -4.5 can’t be as high as 57.5% because of the new addition of RGIII to the Redskins. Still it’s gotta be over 52.4%, making it a value play nonetheless.

PIT 27-12

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans

Projected win: Tennessee, 55.3% – INCORRECT

Projected ATS win: Indianapolis +3.5, 52.4% – CORRECT

IND +3.5 has literally the lowest percentage possible to still be profitable. I would probably avoid it because it’s a waste of time, but by definition it is still a “playable” game.

IND 19-13

Unplayable Games

San Diego Chargers @ Cleveland Browns

Projected win: San Diego, 57.4% – INCORRECT

Projected ATS win: San Diego -3, 50.9% – INCORRECT

CLE 7-6

Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles

Projected win: Atlanta, 50.6% – CORRECT

Projected ATS win: Atlanta -1, 50.6% – CORRECT

ATL 30-17

New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys

Projected win: New York Giants, 53.9% – CORRECT

Projected ATS win: New York Giants -2, 50.6% – CORRECT

NYG 29-24

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