Safe Games (“Locks”)
Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions
Projected win: Detroit, 66.3% – CORRECT
Projected ATS win: Detroit -1.5, 64.6% – CORRECT
Look for the Lions to get a win at home against the home-dominant Seahawks. 64.6% is a phenomenal ATS percentage.
New Orleans Saints @ Denver Broncos
Projected win: New Orleans, 57.6% – INCORRECT
Projected ATS win: New Orleans +6, 69.0% – INCORRECT
Because of the addition of Manning this year, the Denver Broncos are slightly underrated by the computer formula. Still, NO +6 is being picked by other sports sites as a playable game. I would estimate that NO+6 is roughly 60.0% – a full 9-percentage point drop.
Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears
Projected win: Chicago, 68.8% – CORRECT
Projected ATS win: Carolina +9, 57.9% – CORRECT
If you give the dynamic Cam Newton a free 9 points – watch out. CAR +9 (57.9%) has too much value to pass up.
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals
Projected win: San Francisco, 63.7%
Projected ATS win: Arizona +7, 57.5%
The defenses of both Arizona and San Fran are ridiculous, while both their offenses are mediocre at best. No way that San Fran gets more than 7 points separation on the road.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Green Bay Packers
Projected win: Green Bay, 78.2% – CORRECT
Projected ATS win: Jacksonville Jaguars +15, 59.6% – CORRECT
I’m not too sure about JAX +15, but it’s hard to argue with the math. Missing MJD, JAX +15 could to be downgraded to an arbitrary 57.5%, which feels right considering the weak significance of a modern-day running back.
New England vs. St. Louis Rams
Projected win: New England, 73.8% – CORRECT
Projected ATS win: New England -7, 57.2% – CORRECT
Note that the “vs.” instead of the “@” in the game title signifies a neutral site. In this case, it’s London, England. NE -7 (57.2%) is a really solid value play.
Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs
Projected win: Kansas City, 56.3% – INCORRECT
Projected ATS win: Kansas City -1, 56.3% – INCORRECT
KC -1 has a 56.3% chance of covering. KC -1 is an easy call as a solid value bet.
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
Projected win: New York, 61.4% – INCORRECT
Projected ATS win: New York -1.5, 59.5% – INCORRECT
NYJ -1.5 isn’t as high as the listed 59.5% because of injuries to key players. I would put it at ~55%, which is still a solid value play.
Washington Redskins @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Projected win: Pittsburgh, 68.6% – CORRECT
Projected ATS win: Pittsburgh -4.5, 57.5% – CORRECT
PIT -4.5 can’t be as high as 57.5% because of the new addition of RGIII to the Redskins. Still it’s gotta be over 52.4%, making it a value play nonetheless.
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
Projected win: Tennessee, 55.3% – INCORRECT
Projected ATS win: Indianapolis +3.5, 52.4% – CORRECT
IND +3.5 has literally the lowest percentage possible to still be profitable. I would probably avoid it because it’s a waste of time, but by definition it is still a “playable” game.
San Diego Chargers @ Cleveland Browns
Projected win: San Diego, 57.4% – INCORRECT
Projected ATS win: San Diego -3, 50.9% – INCORRECT
Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles
Projected win: Atlanta, 50.6% – CORRECT
Projected ATS win: Atlanta -1, 50.6% – CORRECT
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys
Projected win: New York Giants, 53.9% – CORRECT
Projected ATS win: New York Giants -2, 50.6% – CORRECT