Safe Games (“Locks”)
Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans
Projected win: Houston, 50.6% – CORRECT
Projected ATS win: Baltimore +7, 67.8% – INCORRECT
If the Ravens weren’t as banged up as they are (injured: Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, Ed Reed, and Lardarius Webb), this would be an easy call. Still, I think even if BAL +7 isn’t as high as 67.8%, it still has enough value (maybe 55-60%) to make it a relatively safe bet.
Tennessee Titans @ Buffalo Bills
Projected win: Buffalo, 52.3% – INCORRECT
Projected ATS win: Tennessee +3, 57.2% – CORRECT
Tennessee essentially has a 50-50 shot at the upset. Give ’em 3 additional points for the spread and it’s easy to see TEN +3 has value.
Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings
Projected win: Minnesota, 64.7% – CORRECT
Projected ATS win: Arizona +6, 55.7% – INCORRECT
Arizona has an atrocious offense, but a pretty solid defense. Their defense will be what keeps them in this game. It won’t be easy for Minnesota to get 6 points separation. At 55.7%, ARI +6 carries a lot of value.
New York Jets @ New England Patriots
Projected win: New England, 70.1% – CORRECT
Projected ATS win: New York, 59.6% – CORRECT
Similar to the Ravens situation, the Jets are banged up, with injuries to WR Santonio Holmes and arguably their best player, CB Darrelle Revis. Still, 59.6% is too high to be completely discounted by injuries; I would adjust it to 53-56%, making it a profitable play.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals
Projected win: Pittsburgh, 55.9% – CORRECT
Projected ATS win: Pittsburgh Pick, 55.9% – CORRECT
“Pick” just means that there is no spread for this game; the teams are too evenly matched. That said, Pittsburgh should win this game (55.9%) and obviously cover the 0-point spread.
Cleveland Browns @ Indianapolis Colts
Projected win: Indianapolis, 54.6% – CORRECT
Projected ATS win: Cleveland +3, 55.0% – INCORRECT
CLE +3 isn’t a great play, but it definitely has value.
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected win: New Orleans, 61.4% – CORRECT
Projected ATS win: New Orleans -3, 52.9% – CORRECT
NO -3 doesn’t carry a whole lot of value statistically – 52.9% – but I have a feeling the Saints offense will abuse the Bucs defense this week. Take NO -3.
Dallas Cowboys @ Carolina Panthers
Projected win: Dallas, 53.7% – CORRECT
Projected ATS win: Carolina +2, 52.4% – INCORRECT
There’s no value in CAR +2, as it sits dead-on the 52.4% profitability threshold. Avoid this game.
Washington Redskins @ New York Giants
Projected win: New York Giants, 71.2% – CORRECT
Projected ATS win: New York -6, 52.1% – INCORRECT
It’s a negative value play to take either team at +/- 6.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Oakland Raiders
Projected win: Oakland, 61.9% – CORRECT
Projected win: Jacksonville +4, 50.9% – CORRECT
Avoid JAX +4.
Green Bay Packers @ St. Louis Rams
Projected win: Green Bay, 67.4% – CORRECT
Projected ATS win: St. Louis +6, 50.8% – INCORRECT
Definitely avoid STL +6.