NFL Week 3 (Monday Night Pick

MVP Aaron Rodgers and his Green Bay Packers head to the Pacific Northwest to take on a revamped Seattle Seahawks squad that’s hungry for a nationally televised upset. The Hawks are three-and-a-half point dogs, meaning the Vegas bookies are giving little respect to Seattle’s tenacious home crowd.

This game is essentially a toss-up. Despite Seattle’s defensive abilities, Green Bay maintains a significant advantage with their offense on the field. What the running game lacks, the passing attack more than makes up for. Expect the Packers to put up around 24 points tonight.

QB Russell Wilson and the Seahawk offense are on par with the Packer defense. The Seahawks have the advantage when they run the ball, as the Packers have many holes to fix in the heart of the defense: 300+ pound B.J. Raji can only take up so many defenders. The Packers have the advantage when the Seahawks go to the air. (See: Jay Cutler’s Week 2 performance.) If the Seahawks can’t get effective yardage on the ground, they’ll be forced to go to the air, which could have dire consequences for an inexperienced QB like Wilson. I predict Seattle to score three TD’s tonight – two via the ground and one through the air.

Obviously if this game was played in Green Bay, I would have predicted a drastically different outcome. But because it’s in Seattle, which has proven to give a hyper-effective advantage to their hometown Hawks, I have to limit the overall potential of the Packers and give a decent boost to the team wearing neon green. Still, Green Bay wins by a field-goal.

Bold prediction: Green Bay wins after putting up two fourth-quarter TDs, 24-21.

DynamicPicks Computer Predictions:

Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks

Projected win: Green Bay, 55.0% – INCORRECT

Projected ATS win: Seattle +3.5, 56.2% – CORRECT

Avoid Green Bay straight-up. In fact, it is actually advantageous to take the Hawks straight-up. Definitely take Seattle +3.5. At 56.2% it has tremendous spread value.

Advertisements

One thought on “NFL Week 3 (Monday Night Pick

  1. Thought you might be interested in my blog… http://pureprofootballpicks.wordpress.com/

    I developed a team ratings system that’s based on 18 different stat categories…took me a year to tweak it to current state, but I tested it against every game from 2003-2011 and it went 73% SU and 66% ATS…in it’s first week of “real-time” testing (wk 3), it went 10-5-1. So yeah, check out my wk 4 picks and see how it does this week!

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s