NFL Week 2 (Monday Night Pick)

MNF’s Week 2 matchup pits the Denver Broncos against the Atlanta Falcons. The game will be played in Atlanta, Georgia.

The Atlanta Falcons are looking to double-up on their season opening domination of the Kansas City Chiefs – a 40-24 road victory. They probably wouldn’t mind continuing the hyper-effecitve connection between QB Matt Ryan and WR Julio Jones (6 rec, 108 yds, 2 TDs).

The Denver Broncos are looking to have veteran QB Peyton Manning continue to find his groove as he enters only his second NFL game since returning from a neck injury. He lit up the dominant Steelers defense for 25 points (DB Tracy Porter added 6 more with a pick-six at the end of the game). Expect Manning to improve further on MNF.

Considering the Falcon offense against the Bronco defense, it’s a decisive advantage for the team from Georgia. The Falcons have too many weapons on offense.

Considering the opposite – Denver O and Atlanta D – the Broncos maintain only a slight advantage. Manning is great, but he’s still in recovery mode (playing at maybe 90% of his best). RB Knowshon Moreno is a solid runner, yet still lacks any extreme, game-changing explosiveness – like that of Jamaal Charles in KC. All things considered, the Falcons defense will be able to keep up with the standard Broncos offense.

When factoring in for home-field advantage, the Falcons hold a significant overall advantage over the Broncos. Their offense should be clicking in the Georgia Dome, having little issue moving the ball at will. The Denver offense will be solid, but won’t have enough to outscore Atlanta.

Bold prediction: Falcons win, 27-21.

Computer Prediction by DynamicPicks:

Denver Broncos @ Atlanta Falcons

Projected win: Atlanta, 66.9% – CORRECT

Projected ATS win: Atlanta -3, 57.3% – CORRECT

ATL 27-21

Remember, these statistics have little respect for the Broncos’ addition of Peyton Manning; take them with a grain of salt. However, there is still useful info to be derived from the stats: without Manning, this game should be a domination by the Falcons. With Manning, then, it should be a close duel between two of the league’s finest QBs.

Avoid taking the Falcons straight-up; they’re sitting at -160 right now, which is too steep of a line. Take the Falcons -3; it has some value.

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