NFL Preseason Rankings

Below is a list of the NFL preseason rankings, according to DynamicPicks’ computer predictions.

Things to note:

1) The rankings do not have the ability to account for trades, injuries, or miscellaneous subjective factors. So, despite Peyton Manning’s addition, the Denver Broncos are ranked according to the stats amassed by the run-heavy team formerly led by Tim Tebow.

There’s no way to get around this statistically. However, you can simply use your own subjective opinion and combine it with the predictions. Returning to the example above – Denver is ranked at number 29 in the preseason rankings. Maybe you feel they deserve to be at 20, which would be just ahead of Oakland and just behind Cleveland. Or maybe you feel they should be at 14 – in between Dallas and Chicago. The way you interpret these rankings is up to you.

2) These predictions may look conservative; that’s because they are. The Carolina Panthers might look like the sleeper team of the century; the St. Louis Rams might appear to be the worst team in history. However, you have to understand that these predictions are based off a relatively large sample size to reduce the possibility of error. They are not going to tell you to put all your money on 25 and spin the roulette wheel. Just because the Panthers had a pretty awesome season last year – one that looks like it could spell sleeper for 2012-13 – doesn’t mean they’re all of the sudden a Top-10 team.

Let me give an example for clarity. Based on statistics, Team A goes 4-12 over the course of a season. A few of those wins and losses were close: three of the four wins were within seven points, and five of the 12 losses were within seven points. Given the fact that in any close game, a few subjective calls and/or lucky plays could completely change the final result, it could have happened that Team A won all of their “close” games. That would make Team A a 9-7 team, despite them putting up stats that would make them 4-12. So, just because a team appears to be awesome – or terrible – that doesn’t mean that’s what they actually are; that’s just what they appear to be.

Now, here are the rankings:

1. New England

2. Green Bay

3. Atlanta

4. Pittsburgh

5. Baltimore

6. New York Giants

7. New Orleans

8. San Francisco

9. San Diego

10. Houston

11. Philadelphia

12. New York Jets

13. Detroit

14. Dallas

15. Chicago

16. Kansas City

17. Cincinnati

18. Miami

19. Cleveland

20. Oakland

21. Tennessee

22. Seattle

23. Minnesota

24. Jacksonville

25. St. Louis

26. Washington

27. Indianapolis

28. Carolina

29. Denver

30. Tampa Bay

31. Buffalo

32. Arizona

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