NBA Finals, Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Game 4 of the NBA Finals. The Miami Heat lead the Oklahoma City Thunder two games to one. The Heat have won two straight and can finish off the series on their home court if they can win the next two.

I can’t make up my mind on this game.

On the one hand, the Heat need to win if they’re going to be able to win the Finals. If they lose Game 4, they will have lost all their momentum, the series will be tied 2-2, and they will only have one home game left to OKC’s two. Needless to say, the media pundits will have a field day attacking LeBron James and the Heat organization if they somehow manage to let this series slip away. The Heat need to win Game 4.

On the other hand, the Thunder also need to win if they’re going to win the Finals. If they lose Game 4, they will be down 3-1 going into a Game 5 on Miami’s home court, where the Heat will be able to close out the series with just one win. You’re telling me the Thunder will win three straight against the superteam of the decade? The Thunder really need to win Game 4.

And that’s why I can’t make up my mind. The Heat and Thunder both really need to win this game – the Thunder maybe a little more than the Heat.

Should the advantage, then, go to the Thunder?

Well, the Heat have home court advantage and the better overall team. So, all things considered, I’d give the Heat a very, very slight edge in Game 4.

Bold prediction: Heat win on a Dwyane Wade jumper, 97-95.

Computer Predictions by DynamicPicks:

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Miami Heat

Projected win: Miami, 66.5% – CORRECT

Projected ATS win: Miami -3.5, 51.1% – CORRECT

Avoid the straight up and the spread. This game is going to be too messy to make an accurate prediction.

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