NBA Western Conference Finals Pick, Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals tonight in San Antonio. Oklahoma City and San Antonio really duked it out in the first matchup, with the result being a 101-98 victory for the Spurs.

With regard to analysis, nothing really has changed from Game 1 to Game 2. The Spurs are still my favorite to win the series–especially now that they’re up 1-0. And I still predict OKC to lose this game by a solid margin.

The key to this series is the bench. The starters are roughly equal on both sides. Tony Parker is the equivalent of Russell Westbrook. Tim Duncan is close to the equivalent of Kevin Durant. And the other three for both San Antonio and OKC matchup talent-wise. So it really does come down to who has the better bench.

My pick is San Antonio. The Spurs’ bench is deeper and more talented. The Spurs can go 11 deep without worry. OKC can go 8, maybe 9, deep.

To sum it up: Manu Ginobli > James Harden.

Prediction: San Antonio wins 103-95.

Computer Predictions by DynamicPicks:

Oklahoma City @ San Antonio

Projected win: San Antonio, 69.3% – CORRECT

Projected ATS win: San Antonio -5, 55.7% – CORRECT

Because the odds aren’t too terrible, San Antonio straight up is a decent bet. However, San Antonio -5 may be the better bet, as the Spurs have a 55.7% chance of covering. My advice is to take San Antonio and/or San Antonio -5; I’m feeling the Spurs dominating this game.

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