NBA Western Conference Finals Pick, Sunday, May 27, 2012

We’ve got the exciting, and highly anticipated, Game 1 Western Conference Finals matchup of the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs tonight. The game will take place in San Antonio in front of one of the most loyal home crowds in the NBA.

Coach Gregg Popovich and his Spurs are my pick to win this series, so it’s no surprise I’m picking them to win this game. The Spurs, as everyone’s been talking about, haven’t lost a game over their last 18. That’s a ridiculous streak. They’ll stretch it to 19 tonight.

The Spurs are better coached than the Thunder–no offense Scottie Brooks!–and have just as much, if not more, talent than the Thunder. Additionally, the Spurs have a much better bench than the Thunder–despite Sixth Man of the Year award winner James Harden coming off the bench for the Thunder. Anyone remember the Spurs’ man-machine that goes by the name of Manu Ginobli?

The Spurs also have a phenomenal Big Three–Ginobli, Tim Duncan, and Tony Parker–that is much more disciplined, fundamental, composed, and all-around better than the OKC Big Three–Harden, Kevin Durant, and Russell Westbrook.

Look, the Thunder are a great team, but they still won’t win a game in San Antonio this series. The Spurs have a +12.8 home point differential. That’s a phenomenal number, and good for first in the league. The Thunder only post a +2.9 road point differential, which is good–but not good enough.

And as Shaq will probably sing in a future YouTube.com video, “I guess your best wasn’t good enough.”

Bold prediction: Spurs win at home by more than 10.

Computer Predictions by DynamicPicks:

Oklahoma City @ San Antonio

Projected win: San Antonio, 69.9% – CORRECT

Projected ATS win: San Antonio -5.5, 56.9% – INCORRECT

Take San Antonio straight up; it has ridiculously good value. Try to avoid San Antonio -5.5, just because 5.5 is a crap spread that misses consistently in the NBA. But honestly, if I had to pick the spread, I would take SA -5.5 because I think that the Spurs going to control this game from start to finish.

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